Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 3.973155 4.667104 5.435406 6.347560 7.399360 8.572486 9.978410
2025-09-07 2.944873 3.886687 5.043072 6.559961 8.489127 10.851752 13.954566
2025-09-14 2.237053 3.259309 4.628500 6.579276 9.266760 12.815159 17.826434
2025-09-21 1.767069 2.805110 4.303446 6.593573 9.967532 14.708981 21.816599
2025-09-28 1.433977 2.457228 4.035300 6.600327 10.605450 16.543066 25.906610
2025-10-05 1.308387 2.393403 4.163449 7.193313 12.159089 19.853505 32.502748
2025-10-12 1.141522 2.222621 4.082903 7.426241 13.159428 22.414432 38.223382
2025-10-19 1.006658 2.077710 4.014315 7.654756 14.161309 25.063137 44.340937
2025-10-26 0.869014 1.898361 3.850988 7.683515 14.809459 27.178094 49.775464
2025-11-02 0.724779 1.675919 3.568476 7.445239 14.938793 28.401701 53.790953
2025-11-09 0.593377 1.452194 3.244013 7.072272 14.758741 29.039348 56.810605
2025-11-16 0.508228 1.311137 3.061304 6.947915 15.026779 30.500015 61.436341
2025-11-23 0.437994 1.192162 2.910511 6.877570 15.414114 32.265518 66.893706
2025-11-30 0.402236 1.149259 2.920551 7.154473 16.550292 35.600835 75.705886
2025-12-07 0.355481 1.068227 2.829405 7.192396 17.184631 38.003870 82.920117
2025-12-14 0.314326 0.992624 2.737710 7.213893 17.782827 40.388989 90.321173
2025-12-21 0.278230 0.922610 2.647238 7.223328 18.351963 42.764808 97.919326
2025-12-28 0.275402 0.948722 2.806977 7.868456 20.460459 48.624131 113.360392
2026-01-04 0.255271 0.918043 2.811386 8.121771 21.671772 52.637249 125.186364
2026-01-11 0.236845 0.888505 2.813875 8.370068 22.898870 56.796952 137.688318
2026-01-18 0.212806 0.834847 2.739164 8.401338 23.591196 59.805136 147.885293
2026-01-25 0.182848 0.753272 2.568343 8.142555 23.514450 61.021011 154.122759
2026-02-01 0.153144 0.664272 2.357866 7.737370 23.002703 61.151028 157.853088